Societal Dynamics

What is

SoDy?

SoDy is the ‘Historical Policy Lab’.

Our mission is to learn from history’s lessons, exploring the dynamics of the past to better address the challenges of our modern polycrisis. We formed in 2023 from a growing awareness that while history doesn’t repeat itself, it does rhyme; our present, and so our future, is shaped by our past, to a much greater degree than many people realize.

But we know that the future is not set in stone…

Our goal is to co-create actionable and historically-informed interventions that can meaningfully, impactfully, and sustainably transform system functions towards more positive, sustainable, just outcomes. We offer no ‘magic bullets’ to solve problems; rather, we engage cutting-edge research as a means to survey options and seed discussion with policy-makers and other stakeholders.

SoDy offers something unique: empirical proof that justice works. Not just morally, but practically. Not just hopefully, but historically.

We show that societies that share power and resources don't just survive—they thrive. Those that don't, risk collapse.

Why Us,

Why Now?

History shows we're approaching what systems scientists call a "critical transition"—a moment when small actions can trigger massive change. But history also shows we have choice. The New Deal, the abolition of slavery, the expansion of suffrage—all seemed impossible until they happened. Each required understanding historical dynamics, building unlikely coalitions, and seizing moments of possibility. We're in such a moment now.

The past shows us the patterns.

The present gives us the choice.

The future depends on what we do now.

What

We Do

SoDy’s approach combines the best of multiple and interconnected disciplines.

Our work is grounded in Complexity Science and Cliodynamics, and we draw from History and Anthropology, Cultural Evolution, Environmental Science, and Systemic Risk Analysis.

We blend quantitative and qualitative analyses to expose the destabilizing pressures that build up in societies over decades, often demanding release as major crises.

Our overarching aim at SoDy is to aid in the improvement of human livelihood, the thriving of non-human species, and biophysical resilience across the globe. This grand ambition can never be achieved by any single organization. Our goal rather is to be part of relevant conversations, to contribute critical insights and co-create actionable solutions with our partners and collaborators, and generally to have a positive impact in any and every way we are able.

Empirical Foundation: We ground our work in the largest historical database ever assembled, the Seshat Databank (a close partner to SoDy), which covers thousands of years and hundreds of societies. We are extending this framework to include contemporary societies as well as incorporating critical information about the biophysical context that supports both human and non-human livelihoods.

How

We Do It

Modeling Complex Dynamics: We use system dynamics to understand how small changes and slow-developing pressures can cascade into major, acute transformation or crisis. We seek to deploy advanced computational models to reveal leverage points where targeted interventions can shift entire systems, linking societal with environmental forces.

Narrative Translation: Complex data means nothing if it can't inspire action. We translate historical patterns into narratives and compelling, digestible narratives alongside coupled visualizations designed to move people from understanding to action. We have established a Country Profile framework that utilizes ‘quantitative storytelling’ techniques.

Collaborative Implementation: We don't work in isolation. Our partnerships with frontline organizations, power holders, and affected communities ensure our insights translate into real-world change.

Founder & Director Dr. Daniel Hoyer has a long and impactful career as a historian and complexity scientist, investigating the processes that support – or diminish – stability and wide-spread well-being among societies in both past and present. He is joined by a dynamic, energetic, and highly skilled team including historians, an environmental scientist, a data scientist, and communications expert: Research Director Dr. Rachel Ainsworth, Data Science Director James Bennett, Global Risk Lead Dr. Florian Ulrich Jehn, Crisis Analyst & Public Historian Samantha Holder, and Brand & Communications Advisor Lisa Light.