SODY PUBLICATIONS
Forthcoming
2026
2025
Handing Over the Keys to the City: When Governments May Inadvertently Solve One Crisis with a Bigger One.
Chiodo, Maurice, Kennedy Mbeva, Dennis Müller, Daniel Hoyer, and Coleman Snell.
SSRN Preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5397669.
No place to hide? Regional resilience and vulnerability to global catastrophic risk.
Jehn, F. U., Rössler, M., Kemp, L., Cassidy, M., Kallenborn, Z., García Martínez, J. B., Mani, L., & Boyd, M.
EarthArXiv.https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/12373/
The Spectrum of (Poly)crisis: Exploring Polycrises of the Past to Better Understand Our Current and Future Risks
Holder, Samantha, Rachel Ainsworth, Daniel Aldrich, James S Bennett, Gary Feinman, Sienna Mark, Georg Orlandi, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Jenny Reddish, Rod Schoonover, Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer.
SocArXiv. https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/3bspg_v1
Inequality’s contribution to global catastrophic risk.
Jehn, F. U., & Hoyer, D.
EarthArXiv. https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/12164/
All Crises Are Unhappy in Their Own Way: The Role of Societal Instability in Shaping the Past.
Hoyer, Daniel, Samantha Holder, James S. Bennett, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse, R. Alan Covey, Gary Feinman, Andrey Korotayev, Vadim Ustyuzhanin, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Kathryn Bard, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Georg Orlandi, Rachel Ainsworth, Peter Turchin.
Social Science History 50, no. 2: 314–46.https://doi.org/10.1017/ssh.2025.10113.
Crises Averted. How A Few Past Societies Found Adaptive Reforms in the Face of Structural- Demographic Crises.
Hoyer, Daniel, James S Bennett, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Donagh Davis, and Peter Turchin.
Cliodynamics 15(2). https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3mw3d3r7
Understanding Polycrisis: Definitions, Applications, and Responses.
Mark, Sienna, Samantha Holder, Daniel Hoyer, Rod Schoonover, and Daniel P. Aldrich.
Global Sustainability 8: e35. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.10018.
ASSOCIATED RESEARCH
POLYCRISIS
Forthcoming
2025
2023
2022
Quantitative Analysis of EMDAT Indicates Changes in Disaster Trends over 124 Years Associated with Polycrisis.
Mark, Sienna, Margarida Soares Rodrigues, Samantha Holder, Daniel Hoyer, Rod Schoonover, and Daniel P. Aldrich.
SSRN Preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4967313.
A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis.
Ajay Gambhir, Michael Albert, Sylvanus Doe, Jonathan Donges, Nadim Farajalla, Leandro Luiz Giatti, Haripriya Gundimeda, Sarah Hendel-Blackford, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Daniel Hoyer, Sumaya Hussein, David Jacome-Polit, Luke Kemp, David Korowicz, Zora Kovacic, Jan Kwakkel, Laurie Laybourn-Langton, Robert Lempert, Ayan Mahamoud, Tom Oliver, Ivana Pavkova, Jospeh Ponnoly, Vishwas Satgar, Megan Shipman, Jana Sillmann , Nick Silver, Samuel Stevenson, Ruth Richardson.
Nature: Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62029-w
Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate.
Hoyer, Daniel, James S. Bennett, Jenny Reddish, Samantha Holder, Robert Howard, Majid Benam, Jill Levine, Francis Ludlow, Gary Feinman, Peter Turchin.
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 6 November 2023; 378 (1889): 20220402. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0402
Focus of the IPCC Assessment Reports Has Shifted to Lower Temperatures.
Jehn, F. U., Kemp, L., Ilin, E., Funk, C., Wang, J. R., & Breuer, L.
Earth’s Future, 10(5), e2022EF002876. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002876
REVOLUTION
2025
Revolution in an Age of Polycrisis
Ainsworth, Rachel, and Daniel Hoyer
Journal of Global Sustainability, Special Topics issue on Polycrisis in the Anthropocene. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.16
GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISK
2025
2024
2023
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes.
Jehn, F. U., Gajewski, Ł. G., Hedlund, J., Arnscheidt, C. W., Xia, L., Wunderling, N., & Denkenberger, D.
Earth System Dynamics, 16(5), 1585–1603.https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025
The state of global catastrophic risk research: A bibliometric review.
Jehn, F. U., Engler, J.-O., Arnscheidt, C. W., Wache, M., Ilin, E., Cook, L., Sundaram, L. S., Hanusch, F., & Kemp, L.
Earth System Dynamics, 16(4), 1053–1084.https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025
Seaweed as a Resilient Food Solution After a Nuclear War.
Jehn, F. U., Dingal, F. J., Mill, A., Harrison, C., Ilin, E., Roleda, M. Y., James, S. C., & Denkenberger, D.
Earth’s Future, 12(1), e2023EF003710. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003710
Anthropocene Under Dark Skies: The Compounding Effects of Nuclear Winter and Overstepped Planetary Boundaries.
Jehn, F. U.
Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference, 119–132. https://doi.org/10.25740/zb109mz2513
2026
2025
2024
GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS
The largest crop production shocks: Magnitude, causes and frequency.
Jehn, F. U., Mulhall, J., Blouin, S., Gajewski, Ł. G., & Wunderling, N.
Earth System Dynamics, 17(1), 151–166. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026
Cliopatria - A Geospatial Database of World-Wide Political Entities from 3400BCE to 2024CE.
Bennett, James S., Erin Mutch, Andrew Toleffson, Ed Chalstrey, Majid Benam, Enrico Cioni, Jenny Reddish, Jakob Szambok, Jill Levine, Justin C. Cook, Pieter Francois, Daniel Hoyer, Peter Turchin.
Nature: Scientific Data. (preprint: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/24wd6).
The Characteristic Time Scale of Cultural Evolution.
Wand, Tobias and Daniel Hoyer.
PNAS Nexus 3(2): https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae009
2024
2023
2020
2016
MODELS OF HISTORY
Landscape of fear: indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies.
Kondor, D., J. S. Bennett, D. Gronenborn, and P. Turchin.
J. Royal Society Interface 21: 20240210. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2024.0210
Explaining Population Booms and Busts in Mid-Holocene Europe.
Kondor, D., J. S. Bennett, D. Gronenborn, N. Antunes, D. Hoyer, and P. Turchin.
Scientific Reports 13:1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35920-z
Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World.
Bennett, James S.
PLOS ONE 17(1): e0261816. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261816
Repeated Demographic-Structural Crises Propel the Spread of Large-scale Agrarian States Throughout the Old World.
Bennett, James S.
Cliodynamics 7(1): 1–36. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio7128530
In Review
2025
2024
2023
2022
CLIODYNAMICS
The Rise and Fall of Human Sacrifice: Analysis of Evidence from World History.
Turchin, Peter, Jennifer Larson, Harvey Whitehouse, Kathryn Bard, Jenny Reddish, Matilda Peruzzo, James S Bennett, Daniel Kondor, Daniel Hoyer, Pieter François.
OSF, December 12, 2025. https://osf.io/ve26m.
“Central Italy,” in Seshat History of Moralizing Religion
Larson, Jennifer, Daniel Hoyer, Jenny Reddish, and Dana Scott.
Seshat History of Moralizing Religion, Vol. 2: Historical and Comparative Perspectives, edited by Jennifer Larson, Jenny Reddish, and Peter Turchin, 3:43–58. Seshat Histories. Beresta Books.
Empirically Testing and Refining Structural Demographic Theory: A Methodological Guide.
Turchin, Peter and Daniel Hoyer.
Histoire et Informatique 24 (2025): 89–120.https://ahc-ch.ch/wp-ahc21/wp-content/uploads/HuI-24-06-Turchin-Hoyer.pdf.
Decline and Fall, Growth and Spread, or Resilience? Approaches to Studying How and Why Societies Change.
Hoyer, Daniel.
Journal of World History. (https://doi.org/10.1353/jwh.2023.a912768)
Explaining Population Booms and Busts in Mid-Holocene Europe.
Kondor, Daniel, James S. Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn, Nicolas Antunes, Daniel Hoyer, and Peter Turchin.
Nature: Scientific Reports 13:1. 10.1038/s41598-023-35920-z
Explaining the Rise of Moralizing Religions: A Test of Competing Hypotheses Using the Seshat Databank.
Turchin, Peter, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Daniel Hoyer, Selin Nugent, Jennifer Larson, Alan Covey, Mark Altaweel, Peter Peregrine, David Carballo, Gary Feinman, Vesna Wallace, Peter K. Bol, Anfrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Eugene Anderson, Patrick E. Savage, Enrico Cioni, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Eva Brandl, Andrea Squitieri.
Religion, Brain, and Behaviour. 10.1080/2153599X.2022.2065345
The labelled container: Conceptual development of social category representations.
Gelpi, R. A., Allidina, S., Hoyer, D., & Cunningham, W. A.
Behavioral and Brain Sciences 45: e108. 10.1017/S0140525X21001412
Disentangling the Evolutionary Drivers of Social Complexity in Human History: A Comprehensive Test of Hypotheses
Turchin, Peter, Harvey Whitehouse, Sergey Gavrilets, Daniel Hoyer, Pieter François, James S Bennett, Kevin Feeney, Peter Peregrine, Gary Feinman, and Andrey Korotayev.
Science: Advances 8(25). 10.1126/sciadv.abn3517
Introduction to Special Issue: Leading Scholars of the Past Comment on Dawn of Everything.
Hoyer, Daniel.
Cliodynamics SI: Leading Scholars of the Past Comment on Dawn of Everything. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio0057260.
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution
Turchin, Peter, Daniel Hoyer , Andrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Sergey Nefedov, Gary Feinman, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Enrico Cioni, Chelsea Thorpe, James S. Bennett, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse.
PLOS-One 16(10): e0258161. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258161
An Integrative Approach to Estimating Productivity in Past Societies Using Seshat: Global History Databank
Turchin, Peter, Thomas Currie, Christina Collins, Jill Levine, Oluwole Oyebamiji, Neil R. Edwards, Philip B. Holden, D. Hoyer, Kevin Feeny, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse.
The Holocene 31(6): 1055–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683621994644
The Equinox2020 Seshat Data Release.
Turchin, Peter, Daniel Hoyer, James Bennett, Kiran Basava, Enrico Cioni, Kevin Feeney, Pieter Francois, et al.
Cliodynamics 11/1: 41-50.https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio11148620.
“Was There Ever an Axial Age?” in Seshat History of the Axial Age
Whitehouse, Harvey, Pieter François, Enrico Cioni, Jill Levine, Daniel Hoyer, Jenny Reddish, and Peter Turchin.
edited by Daniel Hoyer and Jenny Reddish, 395–408. Storrs, CT: Beresta Books.
“Introduction,” in Seshat History of the Axial Age
Hoyer, Daniel, and Jenny Reddish.
edited by Daniel Hoyer and Jenny Reddish, 13–33. Storrs, CT: Beresta Books.
An introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank.
Turchin, P., Whitehouse, H., François, P., Hoyer, D., Alves, A., Baines, J., ... Xie, L.
Journal of Cognitive Historiography. https://doi.org/10.1558/jch.39395
A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience.
Turchin, Peter, Nina Witoszek, Stefan Thurner, David Garcia, Roger Griffin, Daniel Hoyer, Atle Midttun, James Bennett, Knut Myrum Næss, and Sergey Gavrilets.
Cliodynamics 9 (2): 124-39. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio9242078.
A systematic assessment of 'Axial Age' proposals using global comparative historical evidence.
Mullins, Daniel; Hoyer, Daniel; Collins, Christina; Currie, Thomas; Feeney, Kevin; François, Pieter; Savage, Patrick; Whitehouse, Harvey; and Turchin, Peter.
American Sociological Review 83/3: 586-626. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122418772567
An Overview of The Numismatic Evidence from Imperial Roman Africa.
Hoyer, Daniel.
ISAWPapers 13. dlib.nyu.edu/awdl/isaw/isaw-papers/13/
Empirical Regularities across Time, Space, and Culture: A Critical Review of Comparative Methods in Ancient Historical Research
Hoyer, Daniel and Manning, J.G.
Historia 67(2): 160–190. https://doi.org/10.25162/historia-2018-0006
Quantitative Historical Analyses Uncover a Single Dimension of Complexity that Structures Global Variation in Human Social Organization.
Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter Francois, Kevin Feeney, Daniel Mullins, Daniel Hoyer, Christina Collins, Stephanie Grohmann, Patrick Savage, Gavin Mendel-Gleason, Edward Turner, Agathe Dupeyron, Enrico Cioni, Jenny Reddish, Jill Levine, Greine Jordan, Eva Brandl, Alice Williams, Rudolph Cesaretti, Marta Krueger, Alessandro Cecceralli, Joe Figliulo-Rosswurm, Peter Peregrine, Arkadiusz Marciniak, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Nikolay Kradin, Andrey Korotayev, Alessio Palmisano, Charles Spencer, David Baker, Julye Bidmead, Peter Bol, David Christian, Connie Cook, Alan Covey, Gary Feinman, Árni Daníel Júlíusson, Axel Kristinsson, John Miksic, Ruth Mostern, Cameron Petrie, Peter Rudiak-Gould, Barend ter Haar, Vesna Wallace, Victor Mair, Liye Xie, John Baines, Elizabeth Bridges, Joseph Manning, Bruce Lockhart, Po-Ju Tuan, Amy Bogaard.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115
Regionalism in Rome’s Third Century Fiscal Crisis. A Statistical Approach to Ancient Economic History.
Hoyer, Daniel.
Topoi: Occident/Orient 21/1: 233-262. https://www.persee.fr/doc/topoi_1161-9473_2017_num_21_1_3133#
Collaborative Historical Information Analysis. in Comprehensive Geographic Information Systems
Patrick Manning, Pieter François, Daniel Hoyer, and Vladimir Zadorozhny.
edited by Bo Huang. 3 vols. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Turning the Inside Out: the divergent experiences of Gaul and Africa during the third century A.D. in Rome and the Worlds beyond Its Frontiers
Hoyer, Daniel.
edited by M. Peachin and D. Slootjes . Leiden: Brill, 67-95.
Agricultural productivity in past societies: Toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses.
Currie, Thomas E; Bogaard, Amy; Cesaretti, Rudolf; Edwards, Neil; Francois, Pieter; Holden, Phillip; Hoyer, Daniel; Korotayev, Andrey; Manning, Joe; Moreno Garcia, Juan Carlos; Oyebamiji, Oluwole K; Petrie, Cameron; Turchin, Peter; Whitehouse, Harvey; and Williams, Alice.
Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 6/1. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4h29270b
Seshat: The Global History Databank
Turchin, Peter; Brennan, Rob; Currie, Thomas; Feeney, Kevin; Francois, Pieter; Hoyer, Daniel; Manning, Joseph G.; Marciniak, Arkadiusz; Mullins, Daniel; Palmisano, Alessio; Peregrine, Peter; Turner, Edward A.L.; and Whitehouse, Harvey. Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 6/1. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9qx38718
Calculating the Use-Wear Rates of Roman Coins Using Regression Analysis: A Case Study of Bronze Sestertii from Imperial Gaul.
Hoyer, Daniel.
American Journal of Numismatics 25: 259-82. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/43580631
BOOKS
2020
Figuring Out the Past.
P. Turchin & D. Hoyer, eds.
London: Profile Books. https://profilebooks.com/work/figuring-out-the-past/
2019
Seshat History of the Axial Age.
D. Hoyer & J. Reddish, eds.
Seshat Histories Vol. I. Beresta Books: Chaplin, CT. https://berestabooks.com/seshat-history-of-the-axial-age/
2018
Money, Culture, and Well-Being in Rome's Economic Development, 0-275 CE.
D. Hoyer
Brill: Mnemosyne Supplements in the History and Archaeology of Classical Antiquity. https://brill.com/view/title/36003?format=HC&offer=350267