POLYCRISIS
Forthcoming
2025
2023
2022
REVOLUTION
2025
GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISK
2025
2024
2023
2026
2025
2024
2024
2023
2020
2016
Quantitative Analysis of EMDAT Indicates Changes in Disaster Trends over 124 Years Associated with Polycrisis.
Mark, Sienna, Margarida Soares Rodrigues, Samantha Holder, Daniel Hoyer, Rod Schoonover, and Daniel P. Aldrich.
SSRN Preprint: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4967313.
A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis.
Ajay Gambhir, Michael Albert, Sylvanus Doe, Jonathan Donges, Nadim Farajalla, Leandro Luiz Giatti, Haripriya Gundimeda, Sarah Hendel-Blackford, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Daniel Hoyer, Sumaya Hussein, David Jacome-Polit, Luke Kemp, David Korowicz, Zora Kovacic, Jan Kwakkel, Laurie Laybourn-Langton, Robert Lempert, Ayan Mahamoud, Tom Oliver, Ivana Pavkova, Jospeh Ponnoly, Vishwas Satgar, Megan Shipman, Jana Sillmann , Nick Silver, Samuel Stevenson, Ruth Richardson. Nature: Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62029-w
Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate.
Hoyer, Daniel, James S. Bennett, Jenny Reddish, Samantha Holder, Robert Howard, Majid Benam, Jill Levine, Francis Ludlow, Gary Feinman, Peter Turchin.
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 6 November 2023; 378 (1889): 20220402. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0402
Focus of the IPCC Assessment Reports Has Shifted to Lower Temperatures.
Jehn, F. U., Kemp, L., Ilin, E., Funk, C., Wang, J. R., & Breuer, L.
Earth’s Future, 10(5), e2022EF002876. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002876
Revolution in an Age of Polycrisis
Ainsworth, Rachel, and Daniel Hoyer
Journal of Global Sustainability, Special Topics issue on Polycrisis in the Anthropocene. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.16
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes.
Jehn, F. U., Gajewski, Ł. G., Hedlund, J., Arnscheidt, C. W., Xia, L., Wunderling, N., & Denkenberger, D.
Earth System Dynamics, 16(5), 1585–1603.https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025
The state of global catastrophic risk research: A bibliometric review.
Jehn, F. U., Engler, J.-O., Arnscheidt, C. W., Wache, M., Ilin, E., Cook, L., Sundaram, L. S., Hanusch, F., & Kemp, L.
Earth System Dynamics, 16(4), 1053–1084.https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025
Seaweed as a Resilient Food Solution After a Nuclear War.
Jehn, F. U., Dingal, F. J., Mill, A., Harrison, C., Ilin, E., Roleda, M. Y., James, S. C., & Denkenberger, D.
Earth’s Future, 12(1), e2023EF003710. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003710
Anthropocene Under Dark Skies: The Compounding Effects of Nuclear Winter and Overstepped Planetary Boundaries.
Jehn, F. U.
Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference, 119–132. https://doi.org/10.25740/zb109mz2513
GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS
The largest crop production shocks: Magnitude, causes and frequency.
Jehn, F. U., Mulhall, J., Blouin, S., Gajewski, Ł. G., & Wunderling, N.
Earth System Dynamics, 17(1), 151–166. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026
Cliopatria - A Geospatial Database of World-Wide Political Entities from 3400BCE to 2024CE.
Bennett, James S., Erin Mutch, Andrew Toleffson, Ed Chalstrey, Majid Benam, Enrico Cioni, Jenny Reddish, Jakob Szambok, Jill Levine, Justin C. Cook, Pieter Francois, Daniel Hoyer, Peter Turchin.
Nature: Scientific Data. (preprint: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/24wd6).
The Characteristic Time Scale of Cultural Evolution.
Wand, Tobias and Daniel Hoyer.
PNAS Nexus 3(2): https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae009
MODELS OF HISTORY
Landscape of fear: indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies.
Kondor, D., J. S. Bennett, D. Gronenborn, and P. Turchin.
J. Royal Society Interface 21: 20240210. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2024.0210
Explaining Population Booms and Busts in Mid-Holocene Europe.
Kondor, D., J. S. Bennett, D. Gronenborn, N. Antunes, D. Hoyer, and P. Turchin.
Scientific Reports 13:1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35920-z
Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World.
Bennett, James S.
PLOS ONE 17(1): e0261816. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261816
Repeated Demographic-Structural Crises Propel the Spread of Large-scale Agrarian States Throughout the Old World.
Bennett, James S.
Cliodynamics 7(1): 1–36.